Effects:

A staggering amount of debt, both direct loans and CMBS pools, will need refinancing beginning in the 2009-2016 time period. Values may decline due to cap rate decompression, tightening of underwriting standards, and a growing list of properties being put on the market by over-leveraged buyers.

With the recession worsening and consumer spending falling, a wide range of industries will be impacted, from business services to retail to manufacturing sectors. Real estate asset classes serving these industries will also come under pressure in the coming year.